March 10, 2023

Here come the Oscars! It’s an unpredictable race across the board, but readers hoping to scan some Oscar predictions for help with the winners’ pool might be out of luck with our group. With 15 members responding to a poll to place their bets, only one category is unanimous: All Quiet on the Western Front will win Best International Feature. Closely behind, though, is Best Supporting Actor frontrunner Ke Huy Quan with 14/15 predictions.

Join us as we pop the champagne and nosh on our favourite “Oscar noms” like everything bagels, hot dogs, cucumber salad, pizzas, meatball subs, and those grape jelly and BBQ chip sandwiches from The Whale. Hopefully it ends differently than Triangle of Sadness!

Here are Oscar predictions from TFCA members Andrew Parker, Anne Brodie, Barry Hertz, Brian D. Johnson, Courtney Small, Gilbert Seah, Jason Gorber, Karen Gordon, Kelly Boutsalis, Nathalie Atkinson, Pat Mullen, Peter Howell, Peter Knegt, Susan G. Cole, and Victor Stiff.

OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Best Picture

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

Will win:

All Quiet on the Western Front: Gilbert

Everything Everywhere All at Once: Andrew, Anne, Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jason, Karen, Kelly, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Susan, Victor

Best Director

The nominees: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans; Todd Field, Tár; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Will win

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once: Andrew, Anne, Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jason, Karen, Kelly, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Susan

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin: Gilbert

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans: Victor

Best Actress

The nominees: Cate Blanchett, Tár; Ana de Armas, Blonde; Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win

Cate Blanchett: Andrew, Anne, Gilbert, Susan, Victor

Michelle Yeoh: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jason, Karen, Kelly, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K.

Best Actor

The nominees: Austin Butler, Elvis; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; Bill Nighy, Living

Will win

Austin Butler: Gilbert, Jason, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Victor

Colin Farrell: Andrew, Barry

Brendan Fraser: Anne, Brian, Courtney, Karen, Susan

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win

Angela Bassett: Barry, Brian, Gilbert, Kelly, Nathalie, Peter H., Victor

Kerry Condon: Peter K.

Jamie Lee Curtis: Andrew, Anne, Courtney, Jason, Karen, Pat, Susan

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Bryan Tyree Harry, Causeway; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Insiherin; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win

Brendan Gleeson: Victor

Ke Huy Quan: Andrew, Anne, Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Karen, Kelly, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Susan

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Gilbert

Glass Onion: Jason, Victor

Living: Nathalie

Women Talking: Andrew, Anne, Barry, Brian, Courtney, Karen, Kelly, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Susan

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Will win

The Banshees of Inisherin: Andrew, Brian, Courtney, Kelly, Pat, Victor

Everything Everywhere All at Once: Anne, Jason, Karen, Nathalie, Peter H., Peter K., Susan

The Fabelmans: Barry

Triangle of Sadness: Gilbert

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees: All that Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny

Will win

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Andrew, Anne, Gilbert, Kelly, Victor

Navalny: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jason, Karen, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Susan

Best International Feature

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany); Argentina 1985 (Argentina); Close (Belgium); EO (Poland); The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: everyone

Best Animated Feature

The nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes on, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red

Will win

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio: Andrew, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Kelly, Jason, Karen, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Susan, Victor

Turning Red: Anne, Barry

Best Cinematography

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front; Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths; Elvis; Empire of Light; Tár

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Anne, Barry, Brian, Gilbert, Kelly, Peter H., Peter, K.

Elvis: Courtney, Jason, Nathalie, Pat, Victor

Empire of Light: Andrew

Tár: Karen

Best Production Design

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Barry

Avatar: The Way of Water: Courtney, Gilbert

Babylon: Andrew, Anne, Brian, Nathalie, Pat, Peter K., Susan, Victor

Elvis: Jason, Peter H.

The Fabelmans: Kelly

Best Costumes

The nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Will win

Babylon: Gilbert

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Kelly, Nathalie, Susan, Victor

Elvis: Brian, Jason, Pat, Peter H., Peter K.

Everything Everywhere All at Once: Andrew, Barry, Courtney, Karen

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris: Anne

Best Music – Original Score

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Anne, Gilbert, Peter H., Peter K.

Babylon!: Barry, Brian, Pat

The Fabelmans: Courtney, Jason

Best Music – Original Song

The nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman; “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick; “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; “Naatu Naatu” from RRR; “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win

“Hold My Hand”: Andrew, Gilbert, Jason, Susan, Victor

“Lift Me Up”: Anne, Karen

“Naatu Naatu”: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Kelly, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K.

Best Sound

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Barry, Gilbert, Jason, Peter H.

Avatar: The Way of Water: Courtney

Elvis: Kelly, Victor

Top Gun: Maverick: Andrew, Anne, Brian, Karen, Nathalie, Pat, Peter K., Susan

Best Film Editing

The nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Will win

Elvis: Victor

Everything Everywhere All at Once: Andrew, Anne, Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Kelly, Jason, Karen, Peter H., Peter K., Susan

Top Gun: Maverick: Nathalie, Pat

Best Visual Effects

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick

Will win

All Quiet on the Western Front: Anne

Avatar: The Way of Water: Andrew, Barry, Brian, Courtney, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K.

Top Gun: Maverick: Gilbert, Karen, Kelly, Susan

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

The nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale

Will win

The Batman: Nathalie

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Barry, Courtney, Jason

Elvis: Andrew, Anne, Karen, Kelly, Pat, Peter H., Peter K.

The Whale: Brian, Gilbert, Susan, Victor

Best Documentary Short

The nominees: The Elephant Whisperers, Haulout, How Do You Measure a Year?, The Martha Mitchell Effect, Stranger at the Gate

Will win

The Elephant Whisperers: Andrew, Barry, Pat, Victor

Haulout: Jason, Peter H.

How Do You Measure a Year?: Anne, Brian, Kelly

The Martha Mitchell Effect: Gilbert

Stranger at the Gate: Courtney, Karen, Nathalie, Peter K., Susan

Best Animated Short

The nominees: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse; The Flying Sailor; Ice Merchants; My Year of Dicks; An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Will win

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse: Andrew, Brian, Gilbert, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Victor

The Flying Sailor: Anne, Barry, Courtney, Karen, Kelly

Ice Merchants: Peter K.

My Year of Dicks: Jason

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It: Susan

Best Live Action Short

The nominees: An Irish Goodbye, Ivalu, Night Ride, Le Pupille, The Red Suitcase

Will win

An Irish Goodbye: Brian, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Victor

Ivalu: Anne, Jason

Night Ride: Susan

Le Pupille: Courtney, Gilbert, Karen, Kelly

The Red Suitcase: Brian, Peter K.

If you could switch any nominee and replace them with a contender who deserved a slot, who would it be?

Anne says: EO!!!

Brian says: Best International Film – swap Close for Saint Omer; Best Picture – swap Elvis for Aftersun

Karen says: Best Actress – Andrea Riseborough and Michelle Williams for Tilda Swinton, The Eternal Daughter; Emily Watson, God’s Creatures; or Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Nathalie says: Best International Feature – Swap Close for Saint Omer and The Quiet Girl for Decision to Leave

Pat says: Best Director – Swap Daniels and Ruben Östlund for Laura Poitras and Sarah Polley; Best Actress – Kick Ana de Armas to the curb and give that spot to Emma Thompson in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Peter K. says: Best Original Score: Swap The Fabelmans for Women Talking

Which nominee are you rooting for most on Oscar night?

Anne says: Colin Farrell

Brian says: Paul Mescal

Gilbert says: Barry Keoghan

Kelly says: Michelle Yeoh

Nathalie says: Turning Red

Pat says: Sarah Polley

Peter K. says: Sarah Polley

Susan says: Sarah Polley

Victor says: Michelle Yeoh

Oscar Features

At the Toronto Star, Peter Howell gives his picks for who will and should win: “All Quiet on the Western Front seems destined to take the Best International Feature trophy, although I’d give it to Lukas Dhont’s Close, a heartbreaking drama of two young boys who think almost as one person, until the shattering day when they don’t,” writes Howell.

At The Globe and Mail, Barry Hertz offers his picks for who will and should win: “If the Academy Awards refuse to acknowledge the fact that Tom Cruise single-handedly saved moviegoing, then maybe the Oscars deserve whatever ratings disaster will surely befall them,” writes Hertz.

At the Toronto Star, Peter Howell examines the unlikely trajectory of Everything Everywhere All at Once from hip indie darling to Oscar frontrunner: “Everything proved to be the Little Weird Movie That Could, rising into the Top 10 through critical praise and word-of-mouth, and staying there until the middle of the summer. It even hit the No. 1 spot, for a single day, on May 4,” writes Howell. “A big of part of the reason for the film’s unlikely success is the adorability and indefatigability of the directors, cast and crew. The Everything Everywhere teammates obviously all love each other, as displayed in their ecstatic group hugs at such events as the recent Screen Actors Guild and Independent Spirit awards, where the film dominated both shows.”

At POV Magazine, Pat Mullen and Marc Glassman dive into who will win and who should win in the documentary races. They agree that All the Beauty and the Bloodshed deserves to take it, but are split on which doc will.

At Classical FM, Marc Glassman gives his picks. Here are his thoughts on Best Director: “Great as they all are, this comes down to a race between the quirky Anglo-Irish writer-director Martin McDonagh, the quicksilver f/x heavy duo of the Daniels and the legendary auteur Spielberg. I suspect that McDonagh will win a screenplay prize, leaving the young futuristic Daniels fighting it out with a guy who was the hottest property in the Seventies, Spielberg. I think the Academy will acknowledge the new kids on the block—and, yes, I know that’s a dated reference.”

At Zoomer, Nathalie Atkinson rounds up the latest movie must-reads, from a legendary press agent’s memoir and the bloodsport of Oscars campaigning to the story of cinema through colour palettes and a history of the African-American western. “Schulman, a staff writer at The New Yorker, goes behind the scenes in this engaging history of the established power structure of a system that favours white actors and, in recent years, elaborate and expensive months-long For Your Consideration campaigns,” writes Atkinson on Oscar Wars. “It’s valuable background when considering the current Academy Awards controversy: the celebrity word-of-mouth campaign that helped Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the tiny indie film To Leslie get enough notice to earn a surprise Best Actress nomination (at the expense, some say, of Black women who were odds-on favourites).”

At the Toronto Star, Peter Howell unpacks Michael Shulman’s book about the Academy Awards, Oscar Wars, just in time for the big weekend. “There are also accounts of academy hand-wringing over the desire to get younger, more female and more diverse voters (the #OscarsSoWhite debate looms large), pressing issues that have been seriously addressed in recent years by an expansion of voting ranks,” writes Howell. “But Oscar Wars isn’t written as a compendium of the many times when Oscar failed to cover his naked butt. Other notorious incidents are barely mentioned, among them the 1973 snubbing of Marlon Brando’s Best Actor statue by Indigenous rights activist Sacheen Littlefeather and the 1974 ‘streaking’ by naked nobody Robert Opel past hilariously unruffled actor David Niven.”

At The Globe and Mail, Barry Hertz writes why the Oscars seem to matter more than ever. “The show will never be perfect, never be able to please everyone everywhere all at once,” says Hertz. “But the thing is, if film is dying – if movie theatres are slowly becoming less of an essential cog in the entertainment-industry machine and streaming becomes the de facto avenue of cultural consumption – then the Oscars should be the very last thing we bury. Now, more than ever, anyone who cares even a little bit about movies – about the distinct pleasures and powers and possibilities that come with watching a cinematic story projected from end to beginning, ideally in the dark, and ideally surrounded by audiences just as appreciative of the medium – needs to rally around the Oscars. And fight for them.”

At That Shelf, Courtney Small, Jason Gorber, Pat Mullen, and Victor Stiff give their predictions and picks and are having a hard time with Best Actress: “But Everything Everywhere could also be a Birdman scenario: the whole thing hinged on Michael Keaton’s performance and he, too, was (is!) an overlooked industry veteran who drew upon his action star roots. Birdman won Best Picture and yet Keaton still lost to Eddie Redmayne, whose performance in The Theory of Everything carried the film towards additional nominations.”