Miryam Charles receives the inaugural Charles Officer Legacy Award, honouring the late filmmaker’s dedication to craft and community-building.
TFCA Friday: Oscar Predictions Special – Welcome to the Oppenheimer Show!
March 8, 2024

It’s Oscar time again, Charlie Brown. The Toronto Film Critics Association has some redemption to do. Last year, we collectively bombed in our Oscar pool with many of our critics placing their bets on Elvis while underestimating The Whale and All Quiet on the Western Front.
This year, we might do a little better since the group leans with the consensus that sees many categories as foregone conclusions. But when we’re split, we’re really split.
This year’s Oscar pool will likely be won with careful Oscar predictions in the categories for lead actress, costumes, production design, documentary short, animated feature, animated short, and adapted screenplay. It gets trickier if one factors in voters’ habit for pairing categories like Best Film Editing and Best Sound, or Best Costumes and Best Production Design. Oppenheimer is a safe bet in the former pairing, but it’s a coin toss between Barbie and Poor Things in the latter—and in some cases, critics flip-flopped in their choices.
And while the Academy’s choices inevitably won’t be as good as the winners from this year’s TFCA Awards, please join us as we play along with Hollywood’s big night!
All TFCA members were invited to submit their Oscar predictions. Here are the bets placed by Nathalie Atkinson, Liz Braun, Jason Gorber, Karen Gordon, Barry Hertz, Rachel Ho, Peter Howell, Kim Hughes, Brian D. Johnson, Peter Knegt, Pat Mullen, Jennie Punter, Gilbert Seah, Courtney Small, and Rachel West.
Oscar Predictions, TFCA style
Best Picture
The nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Liz, we hope put money on this one. Because if you did, the payout could be huge.
Will win
Anatomy of a Fall: Liz
Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.,
Best Director
The nominees: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Our critics (mostly) agree: Christopher Nolan is the man of the hour.
Will win
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall: Liz
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest: Jennie
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
Actress in a Leading Role
The nominees: Annette Bening, Nyad; Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Emma Stone, Poor Things
See, in a TFCA situation, voters wouldn’t have to choose between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone in what’s sure to be the night’s biggest photo finish. They’d could both win! (Sorry, gents.)
Will win
Lily Gladstone: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Kim, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
Sandra Hüller: Karen
Emma Stone: Jennie
Actor in a Leading Role
The nominees: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Colman Domingo, Rustin; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Our group thinks that Cillian Murphy will join the Oppenheimer sweep, but a few members are holding out hope for Paul Giamatti.
Will win
Paul Giamatti: Barry, Nathalie, Pat
Cillian Murphy: Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Liz, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
Actress in a Supporting Role
The nominees: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; America Ferrera, Barbie; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
In one of few cases of unanimous agreement, Da’Vine Joy Randolph will continue to steamroll the competition.
Will win
Da’Vine Joy Randolph: Everyone
Actor in a Supporting Role
The nominees: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
You are Kenough, Ryan Gosling.
Will win
Robert Downey Jr.: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.,
Ryan Gosling: Jennie, Liz
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Is it American Fiction or will our Best Original Screenplay winner Barbie upset here?
Will win
American Fiction: Brian, Jason, Karen, Nathalie, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
Barbie: Courtney, Pat
Oppenheimer: Barry, Gilbert, Kim
The Zone of Interest: Jennie, Liz
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
We’re betting that Anatomy of a Fall has to win something, eh?
Will win
Anatomy of a Fall: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
The Holdovers: Jennie, Karen, Kim
Best Documentary Feature
The nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
We predict that the Academy will smartly follow our lead on this one.
Will win
20 Days in Mariupol: Everyone
Best Animated Feature
The nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
But Robot Dreams is right there, guys!
Will win
The Boy and the Heron: Barry, Courtney, Gilbert, Jennie, Karen, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Rachel W.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Brian, Jason, Kim, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H.
Best International Feature
The nominees: Io Capitano (Italy), Perfect Days (Japan), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
We split Best Picture and Best International Feature one way for The Zone of Interest, but this time we all agree that Academy voters will do the same with the opposite categories.
Will win
The Zone of Interest: Everyone
Best Cinematography
The nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
The Oppenheimer sweep continues!
Will win
Killers of the Flower: Karen, Kim, Nathalie
Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jason, Jennie, Liz, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
Best Costumes
The nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Here’s a tricky one. Both Barbie and Poor Things are major contenders in this category and Best Production Design with their original threads and fully realized worlds. It’s a toss up.
Will win
Barbie: Brian, Courtney, Kim, Liz, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H.
Napoleon: Gilbert
Oppenheimer: Barry
Poor Things: Jason, Karen, Nathalie, Pat, Rachel W.
Best Production Design
The nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Will voters favour imaginative world building or attention to detail in period design? Another toss-up!
Will win
Barbie: Gilbert, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Rachel H.
Killers of the Flower Moon: Liz
Oppenheimer: Barry
Poor Things: Brian, Courtney, Jason, Peter K, Rachel W.
Best Film Editing
The nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
When in doubt, go for the film with the most editing.
Will win
Anatomy of a Fall: Liz
Killers of the Flower Moon: Kim
Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
Best Sound
The nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
Voters frequently fair Best Film Editing and Best Sound, so the Oppenheimer sweep could be loud here, unless the soundscape of Zone of Interest inspired as much conversation between voters as it did our members.
Will win
Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jason, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H.
The Zone of Interest: Gilbert, Karen, Kim, Liz, Nathalie, Rachel W.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
Maestro, by a nose.
Will win
Golda: Gilbert
Maestro: Barry, Brian, Jason, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H.,
Oppenheimer: Rachel W.
Poor Things: Courtney, Karen, Kim, Liz
Best Music – Original Score
The nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and The Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
We’re going to be hearing the Oppenheimer theme a lot on Sunday night!
Will win
Indiana Jones: Karen
Killers of the Flower Moon: Courtney, Jennie
Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Jason, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
Poor Things: Kim
Best Music – Original Song
The nominees: “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon), “What Was I Made for?” (Barbie)
Are write-in votes for “Dance the Night” accepted?
Will win
“I’m Just Ken”: Barry, Gilbert, Kim
“What Was I Made for?”: Brian, Courtney, Jason, Karen, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
Best Visual Effects
The nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon
A dead heat toss-up between The Creator and Godzilla. Who voted for Napoleon?
Will win
The Creator: Barry, Jason, Pat, Rachel H., Rachel W.
Guardians of the Galaxy: Liz
Godzilla Minus One: Brian, Courtney, Nathalie, Peter H., Peter K.
Mission: Impossible: Gilbert, Jennie, Karen, Kim
Best Documentary Short Film
The nominees: The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between, The Last Repair Shop, Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
We predict that The Last Repair Shop’s Ben Proudfoot will be the first repeat winner in this category since fellow Canadian Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy (The Girl in the River).
Will win
The ABCs of Book Banning: Barry, Brian, Liz, Rachel
The Barber of Little Rock: Courtney
The Last Repair Shop: Gilbert, Jason, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel W.
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó: Jennie
Best Live Action Short Film
The nominees: The After; Invincible; Knight of Fortune; Red, White, and Blue; The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Someone at my annual Oscar party has the strategy of voting for the first film listed alphabetically in shorts categories, assuming that voters didn’t actually watch them. More often than not, the strategy works.
Will win
The After: Gilbert, Liz, Nathalie
Red, White, and Blue: Barry, Jason
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Brian, Courtney, Jennie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.
Best Animated Short Film
The nominees: Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderm, WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
This one is a really tough call, but WAR IS OVER! wins in one of the biggest spreads of the night.
Will win
Letter to a Pig: Jason, Jennie, Kim, Rachel H.
Ninety-Five Senses: Courtney, Rachel
Our Uniform: Nathalie
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko: Barry, Brian, Liz, Pat, Peter H., Peter K.
The 2025 Oscars will introduce an award for Best Casting. If 2023 had an Oscar for this category, what film do you think would have been the winner?
Barry: Oppenheimer
Brian: Poor Things
Courtney: May December
Gilbert: Anatomy of a Fall
Jennie: Barbie
Karen: Oppenheimer
Kim: Poor Things
Nathalie: All of Us Strangers
Pat: Killers of the Flower Moon
Peter H: Barbie
Peter K: Oppenheimer
Rachel H: American Fiction
Rachel W: Oppenheimer
Who Are You Rooting for Most on Oscar Night?
Barry: Oppenheimer
Brian: The Zone of Interest
Courtney: Billie Eilish for Best Original Song
Gilbert: Sandra Hüller
Jennie: Jimmy Kimmel
Kim: Anything in the international category
Karen: Sandra Hüller
Nathalie: Pablo Berger and the team behind Robot Dreams
Pat: To Kill a Tiger, Paul Giamatti, and decent champagne
Peter H: Perfect Days for Best International Feature … although it ain’t gonna happen!
Peter K: All people who will lose: Samy Burch, Sandra Huller, Paul Giamatti and The Zone of Interest sound team.
Rachel H: Ryan Gosling’s backup dancers
Rachel W: Poor Things, Cillian Murphy, and for Zone of Interest to lose every category but sound
All Things Oscars!
At NightViz, Peter Howell gives a Barbenheimer breakdown of the two big movies heading into the show.
At CBC Arts, Peter Knegt offers tips on how to win your Oscar pool and highlights the key categories that don’t seem like done deals.
At Exclaim!, Rachel Ho gives her thoughts on who will and should win, and is awfully generous to Napoleon.
At Classical FM, Marc Glassman lists his choices if he picked the Oscar winners.
At The Globe and Mail, Barry Hertz says who will, should, and shoulda been a contender, like our honorary Canadian, Glenn Howerton.
At POV Magazine, Pat Mullen and Marc Glassman break down the documentary races with their will/should picks—and surprisingly agree.
At That Shelf, Courtney Small, Jason Gorber, Rachel West, and Pat Mullen duke it out in the predictions game.