March 8, 2024

It’s Oscar time again, Charlie Brown. The Toronto Film Critics Association has some redemption to do. Last year, we collectively bombed in our Oscar pool with many of our critics placing their bets on Elvis while underestimating The Whale and All Quiet on the Western Front.

This year, we might do a little better since the group leans with the consensus that sees many categories as foregone conclusions. But when we’re split, we’re really split.

This year’s Oscar pool will likely be won with careful Oscar predictions in the categories for lead actress, costumes, production design, documentary short, animated feature, animated short, and adapted screenplay. It gets trickier if one factors in voters’ habit for pairing categories like Best Film Editing and Best Sound, or Best Costumes and Best Production Design. Oppenheimer is a safe bet in the former pairing, but it’s a coin toss between Barbie and Poor Things in the latter—and in some cases, critics flip-flopped in their choices.

And while the Academy’s choices inevitably won’t be as good as the winners from this year’s TFCA Awards, please join us as we play along with Hollywood’s big night!

All TFCA members were invited to submit their Oscar predictions. Here are the bets placed by Nathalie Atkinson, Liz Braun, Jason Gorber, Karen Gordon, Barry Hertz, Rachel Ho, Peter Howell, Kim Hughes, Brian D. Johnson, Peter Knegt, Pat Mullen, Jennie Punter, Gilbert Seah, Courtney Small, and Rachel West.

Oscar Predictions, TFCA style

Best Picture

The nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Liz, we hope put money on this one. Because if you did, the payout could be huge.

Will win

Anatomy of a Fall: Liz

Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.,

Best Director

The nominees: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Our critics (mostly) agree: Christopher Nolan is the man of the hour.

Will win

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall: Liz

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest: Jennie

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

Actress in a Leading Role

The nominees: Annette Bening, Nyad; Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Emma Stone, Poor Things

See, in a TFCA situation, voters wouldn’t have to choose between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone in what’s sure to be the night’s biggest photo finish. They’d could both win! (Sorry, gents.)

Will win

Lily Gladstone: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Kim, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

Sandra Hüller: Karen

Emma Stone:  Jennie

Actor in a Leading Role

The nominees: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Colman Domingo, Rustin; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

 Our group thinks that Cillian Murphy will join the Oppenheimer sweep, but a few members are holding out hope for Paul Giamatti.

Will win

Paul Giamatti: Barry, Nathalie, Pat

Cillian Murphy: Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Liz, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

Actress in a Supporting Role

The nominees: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; America Ferrera, Barbie; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

 In one of few cases of unanimous agreement, Da’Vine Joy Randolph will continue to steamroll the competition.

Will win

Da’Vine Joy Randolph: Everyone

Actor in a Supporting Role      

The nominees: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

You are Kenough, Ryan Gosling.

Will win

Robert Downey Jr.: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.,

Ryan Gosling: Jennie, Liz

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Is it American Fiction or will our Best Original Screenplay winner Barbie upset here?

Will win

American Fiction: Brian, Jason, Karen, Nathalie, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

Barbie: Courtney, Pat

Oppenheimer: Barry, Gilbert, Kim

The Zone of Interest: Jennie, Liz

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

We’re betting that Anatomy of a Fall has to win something, eh?

Will win

Anatomy of a Fall: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

The Holdovers: Jennie, Karen, Kim

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

 We predict that the Academy will smartly follow our lead on this one.

Will win

20 Days in Mariupol: Everyone 

Best Animated Feature

The nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 But Robot Dreams is right there, guys!

Will win

The Boy and the Heron: Barry, Courtney, Gilbert, Jennie, Karen, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Rachel W.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Brian, Jason, Kim, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H.

Best International Feature

The nominees: Io Capitano (Italy), Perfect Days (Japan), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

We split Best Picture and Best International Feature one way for The Zone of Interest, but this time we all agree that Academy voters will do the same with the opposite categories.

Will win

The Zone of Interest: Everyone

Best Cinematography

The nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

The Oppenheimer sweep continues!

Will win

Killers of the Flower:  Karen, Kim, Nathalie

Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jason, Jennie, Liz, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

Best Costumes

The nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Here’s a tricky one. Both Barbie and Poor Things are major contenders in this category and Best Production Design with their original threads and fully realized worlds. It’s a toss up.

Will win

Barbie: Brian, Courtney, Kim, Liz, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H.

Napoleon: Gilbert

Oppenheimer: Barry

Poor Things: Jason, Karen, Nathalie, Pat, Rachel W.

Best Production Design

The nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Will voters favour imaginative world building or attention to detail in period design? Another toss-up!

Will win

Barbie: Gilbert, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H.,  Rachel H.

Killers of the Flower Moon: Liz

Oppenheimer: Barry

Poor Things: Brian, Courtney, Jason, Peter K, Rachel W.

Best Film Editing

The nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

When in doubt, go for the film with the most editing.

Will win

Anatomy of a Fall: Liz

Killers of the Flower Moon: Kim

Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

Best Sound

The nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

Voters frequently fair Best Film Editing and Best Sound, so the Oppenheimer sweep could be loud here, unless the soundscape of Zone of Interest inspired as much conversation between voters as it did our members.

Will win

Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jason, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H.

The Zone of Interest: Gilbert, Karen, Kim, Liz, Nathalie, Rachel W.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

Maestro, by a nose.

Will win

Golda: Gilbert

Maestro: Barry, Brian, Jason, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H.,

Oppenheimer: Rachel W.

Poor Things: Courtney, Karen, Kim, Liz

Best Music – Original Score

The nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and The Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

 We’re going to be hearing the Oppenheimer theme a lot on Sunday night!

Will win

Indiana Jones: Karen

Killers of the Flower Moon: Courtney, Jennie

Oppenheimer: Barry, Brian, Jason, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

Poor Things: Kim

Best Music – Original Song

The nominees: “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon), “What Was I Made for?” (Barbie)

Are write-in votes for “Dance the Night” accepted?

Will win

“I’m Just Ken”: Barry, Gilbert, Kim

“What Was I Made for?”: Brian, Courtney, Jason, Karen, Liz, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

Best Visual Effects

The nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon

A dead heat toss-up between The Creator and Godzilla. Who voted for Napoleon?

Will win

The Creator: Barry, Jason, Pat, Rachel H., Rachel W.

Guardians of the Galaxy: Liz

Godzilla Minus One: Brian, Courtney, Nathalie, Peter H., Peter K.

Mission: Impossible:  Gilbert, Jennie, Karen, Kim

Best Documentary Short Film

The nominees: The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between, The Last Repair Shop, Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

We predict that The Last Repair Shop’s Ben Proudfoot will be the first repeat winner in this category since fellow Canadian Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy (The Girl in the River).

Will win

The ABCs of Book Banning: Barry, Brian, Liz, Rachel

The Barber of Little Rock: Courtney

The Last Repair Shop: Gilbert, Jason, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel W.

Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó: Jennie

Best Live Action Short Film

The nominees: The After; Invincible; Knight of Fortune; Red, White, and Blue; The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Someone at my annual Oscar party has the strategy of voting for the first film listed alphabetically in shorts categories, assuming that voters didn’t actually watch them. More often than not, the strategy works.

Will win

The After: Gilbert, Liz, Nathalie

Red, White, and Blue: Barry, Jason

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar: Brian, Courtney, Jennie, Pat,  Peter H., Peter K., Rachel H., Rachel W.

Best Animated Short Film

The nominees: Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderm, WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

This one is a really tough call, but WAR IS OVER! wins in one of the biggest spreads of the night.

Will win

Letter to a Pig: Jason, Jennie, Kim, Rachel H.

Ninety-Five Senses: Courtney, Rachel

Our Uniform: Nathalie

WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko: Barry, Brian, Liz, Pat, Peter H., Peter K.

The 2025 Oscars will introduce an award for Best Casting. If 2023 had an Oscar for this category, what film do you think would have been the winner?

Barry: Oppenheimer

Brian: Poor Things

Courtney: May December

Gilbert: Anatomy of a Fall

Jennie: Barbie

Karen: Oppenheimer

Kim: Poor Things

Nathalie: All of Us Strangers

Pat: Killers of the Flower Moon

Peter H: Barbie

Peter K: Oppenheimer

Rachel H: American Fiction

Rachel W: Oppenheimer

Who Are You Rooting for Most on Oscar Night?

Barry: Oppenheimer

Brian: The Zone of Interest

Courtney: Billie Eilish for Best Original Song

Gilbert: Sandra Hüller

Jennie: Jimmy Kimmel

Kim: Anything in the international category

Karen: Sandra Hüller

Nathalie: Pablo Berger and the team behind Robot Dreams

Pat: To Kill a Tiger, Paul Giamatti, and decent champagne

Peter H: Perfect Days for Best International Feature … although it ain’t gonna happen!

Peter K: All people who will lose: Samy Burch, Sandra Huller, Paul Giamatti and The Zone of Interest sound team.

Rachel H: Ryan Gosling’s backup dancers

Rachel W: Poor Things, Cillian Murphy, and for Zone of Interest to lose every category but sound

All Things Oscars!

At NightViz, Peter Howell gives a Barbenheimer breakdown of the two big movies heading into the show.

At CBC Arts, Peter Knegt offers tips on how to win your Oscar pool and highlights the key categories that don’t seem like done deals.

At Exclaim!, Rachel Ho gives her thoughts on who will and should win, and is awfully generous to Napoleon.

At Classical FM, Marc Glassman lists his choices if he picked the Oscar winners.

At The Globe and Mail, Barry Hertz says who will, should, and shoulda been a contender, like our honorary Canadian, Glenn Howerton.

At POV Magazine, Pat Mullen and Marc Glassman break down the documentary races with their will/should picks—and surprisingly agree.

At That Shelf, Courtney Small, Jason Gorber, Rachel West, and Pat Mullen duke it out in the predictions game.

The Oscars air on Sunday night at an early 7:00 PM!