March 13, 2026

This year’s Oscar predictions should be the year in which the herd separates the sheep from the goats. It’s a close race in nearly every category for this year’s Academy Awards. Many of the contests are too close to call with awards pundits losing sleep over the various factors that could contribute to the Best Actor race: Did Timothée Chalamet want it too badly? Is Michael B. Jordan overdue? What about Ethan Hawke? Meanwhile, some technical categories are pure chaos and have prognosticators contradicting guild wins and precedents.

It might be a year to trust your gut. Listen to that little man or little woman rumbling inside while placing your bets. The bragging rights are higher than ever!

To help cinephiles prepare for their annual Oscar pool, we polled members of the TFCA to tell us who they think will win on Oscar night.  We have only one unanimous choice, Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley, so Sunday night could go any number of ways.

Participants: Brian D. Johnson, Dave Voigt, Gilbert Seah, Jackson Weaver, Jason Gorber, Jennie Punter, Karen Gordon, Kim Hughes, Liam Lacey, Marc Glassman, Pat Mullen, Peter Howell, Rachel West, Susan G. Cole

Best Picture

The nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

Will win

One Battle After Another: Brian, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Kim, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter, Rachel, Susan

Sinners: Dave, Karen

Best Director

The nominees: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet; Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme; Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Will win

Paul Thomas Anderson: Brian, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Karen, Kim, Liam, Pat, Peter, Rachel, Susan

Ryan Coogler: Dave, Jennie, Marc

Best Actress

The nominees: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Emma Stone, Bugonia

Will win

Jessie Buckley: everyone

Best Actor

The nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Will win

Timothée Chalamet: Jackson, Pat

Ethan Hawke: Rachel

Michael B. Jordan:  Brian, Gilbert, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Liam, Marc, Peter, Susan

Wagner Moura: Dave

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Will win

Amy Madigan:  Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Peter, Rachel, Susan

Teyana Taylor: Dave, Liam, Marc, Pat

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

Will win

Jacob Elordi: Karen

Delroy Lindo: Dave

Sean Penn: Brian, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Kim, Marc, Peter, Rachel, Susan

Stellan Skarsgard: Pat, Rachel

Best Casting

The nominees: Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

Will win

One Battle After Another:  Jennie, Karen, Kim, Marc, Rachel, Susan

The Secret Agent: Dave

Sinners: Brian, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Liam, Pat, Peter

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

Will win

Hamnet: Rachel, Susan

One Battle After Another: Brian, Dave, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

Will win

Blue Moon: Marc

Marty Supreme: Gilbert

Sinners: Brian, Dave, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Liam, Pat, Peter, Rachel, Susan

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees: The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

Will win

Come See Me in the Good Light: Dave, Jennie, Karen, Susan

Mr. Nobody Against Putin: Gilbert, Rachel

The Perfect Neighbor: Brian, Jackson, Jason, Kim, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter

Best International Feature

The nominees: It Was Just an Accident (France), The Secret Agent (Brazil), Sentimental Value (Norway), Sirāt (Spain), The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Will win

It Was Just an Accident: Karen

The Secret Agent:  Dave, Gilbert, Jennie, Marc, Susan

Sentimental Value: Brian, Jackson, Jason, Kim, Liam, Pat, Peter, Rachel

Best Animated Feature

The nominees: Arco; Elio; KPop Demon Hunters; Little Amélie, or the Character of Rain; Zootopia 2

Will win

Elio: Susan

KPop Demon Hunters: Brian, Dave, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Kim, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter, Rachel

Zootopia 2: Gilbert, Karen

Best Cinematography

The nominees: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Will win

One Battle After Another: Jason, Jennie, Kim, Liam, Pat, Susan

Sinners: Brian, Gilbert, Jackson, Marc, Peter, Rachel

Train Dreams: Dave, Karen

Best Costumes

The nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

Will win

Frankenstein: Brian, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Kim, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter, Rachel, Susan

Hamnet: Gilbert

Sinners: Dave, Karen

Best Production Design

The nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Will win

Frankenstein: Brian, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Liam, Pat, Peter

Hamnet: Gilbert

One Battle After Another: Susan

Sinners: Dave, Marc, Rachel

Best Film Editing

The nominees: F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

Will win

One Battle After Another: Brian, Dave, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Kim, Liam, Pat, Peter, Susan

Sinners: Rachel

Best Sound

The nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

Will win

F1: Jackson, Jason, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter

One Battle After Another: Dave, Karen

Sinners: Brian, Gilbert, Kim

Sirāt: Rachel, Susan

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The nominees: Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

Will win

Frankenstein: Brian, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Kim, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter, Rachel, Susan

Sinners: Dave, Gilbert, Karen

Best Original Score

The nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

Will win

Frankenstein: Gilbert

One Battle After Another: Dave, Kim, Susan

Sinners: Brian, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Karen, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter, Rachel

Best Original Song

The nominees: “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

Will win

“Golden”: Brian, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Kim, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter, Rachel, Susan

“I Lied to You”: Dave, Jennie

“Train Dreams”: Karen

Best Visual Effects

The nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

Winners

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Brian, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Kim, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter, Rachel

F1: Dave

Sinners: Karen, Susan

Best Documentary Short

The nominees: All the Empty Rooms, Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”, The Devil Is Busy, perfectly a strangeness

Will win

All the Empty Rooms: Brian, Jason, Kim, Liam, Marc, Pat, Peter, Rachel, Susan

Armed with Only a Camera: Gilbert, Jennie

perfectly a strangeness: Dave, Jackson

Best Live Action Short Film

The nominees: Butcher’s Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen’s Period Drama, The Singers, Two People Exchanging Saliva

Will win

Butcher’s Stain: Pat

A Friend of Dorothy: Dave, Liam

Jane Austen’s Period Drama: Gilbert, Jennie, Rachel

The Singers:  Marc, Peter, Susan

Two People Exchanging Saliva: Brian, Jackson, Jason, Kim

Best Animated Short Film

The nominees: Butterfly, Forevergreen, The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Retirement Plan, The Three Sisters

Will win

Butterfly: Jason, Liam

The Girl Who Cried Pearls:  Jackson, Kim, Marc, Pat, Peter

Retirement Plan: Dave, Jennie, Rachel, Susan

The Three Sisters: Gilbert

Who are you rooting for most on Oscar night?

Brian: Hamnet

Dave: Some sort of vote split to allow Wagner Moura or The Secret Agent win one of the bigger prizes.

Jackson: Elio :'(

Jason: Matt Berry’s announcements

Karen: Too many excellent choices this year and maybe the least predictable Oscars in memory. This ballot represents my gut feelings right now. But I could fill out a second ballot with completely different and worthy choices!

Liam: The Secret Agent

Pat: Come See Me in the Good Light and a healthy round of French 75s

Peter: Alison McAlpine’s perfectly a strangeness to win Best Documentary Short.

Rachel: Sirāt and Come See Me in the Good Light

Susan: Sinners, Ethan Hawke

Oscars coverage

At CBC, Jackson Weaver breaks down his picks, including some major threats who could spoil perceived coin tosses.

At Zoomer, Brian D. Johnson shares Oscar party pointers.

At POV Magazine, Pat Mullen and Marc Glassman dive into the two documentary categories.

At That Shelf, Jason Gorber, Rachel West, and Pat Mullen give their wills and shoulds for the nominees/winners.

At Classical FM, Marc Glassman shares his full set of predictions.