February 28, 2025

Here come the Oscars, Hollywood’s most anticipated and dreaded night. It’s a tight race across the board, as many of the categories are too close to call.

We surveyed the members of the Toronto Film Critics Association to gather their Oscar predictions in the Academy’s horse races. Unfortunately, we’re not going to be much help with several of the categories receiving a bet for each nominee. Only one nominee is unanimously predicted to win, though: A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin for Best Supporting Actor. Otherwise, there are several toss-ups with Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez fighting to a photo finish.

And for choices with real taste, check out the picks from this year’s TFCA Awards gala, including photos from the event and the annual Brian D. Johnson montage.

Here are our fearless (and foolhardy!) Oscar predictions!

Participants: Andrew Parker, Barry Hertz, Brian D. Johnson, Courtney Small, Gilbert Seah, Jackson Weaver, Jason Gorber, Jennie Punter, Jim Slotek, Joe Lipsett, Johanna Schneller, Karen Gordon, Kimberly Hughes, Nathalie Atkinson, Pat Mullen, Peter Howell, Peter Knegt, Rachel West, Radheyan Simonpillai

Best Picture

The nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

Will win

Anora: Andrew, Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jackson, Jim, Johanna, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rad

The Brutalist: Gilbert, Joe

A Complete Unknown: Jennie

Conclave: Jason, Rachel

Best Director

The Nominees: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Will win

Sean Baker: Andrew, Brian, Courtney, Jackson, Jason, Jim, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rad

Brady Corbet: Barry, Gilbert, Joe, Johanna, Rachel

Coralie Fargeat: Jennie

Best Actress

The nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance; Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Will win

Mikey Madison: Barry, Jason, Jim, Rad

Demi Moore: Andrew, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jackson, Joe, Johanna, Karen, Kim, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel

Fernanda Torres: Jennie, Nathalie

Best Actor

The nominees: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Will win

Adrien Brody: Andrew, Barry, Gilbert, Jackson, Joe, Karen, Pat, Peter K., Rachel, Rad

Timothée Chalamet: Brian, Courtney, Jason, Jim, Johanna, Kim, Peter H.

Colman Domingo: Jennie

Ralph Fiennes: Nathalie

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: Monica Barbara, A Complete Unknown; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Isabella Rossellini; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Will win

Monica Barbaro: Jim

Isabella Rossellini: Andrew, Jennie, Kim

Zoe Saldaña: Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Joe, Johanna, Karen, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel, Rad

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremey Strong, The Apprentice

Will win

Kieran Culkin: Everyone

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Will win

A Complete Unknown: Barry

Conclave: Andrew, Brian, Gilbert, Jason, Jim, Johanna, Karen, Kim, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel, Rad

Nickel Boys: Courtney, Jackson, Jennie, Joe, Nathalie

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

Will win

Anora: Barry, Courtney, Jackson, Johanna, Pat, Peter H., Rachel

The Brutalist: Andrew, Gilbert

A Real Pain: Brian, Jason, Jennie, Joe, Karen, Kim, Peter K., Rad

September 5: Jim, Nathalie

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees: Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’État, Sugarcane

Will win

Black Box Diaries: Andre

No Other Land: Courtney, Jackson, Jason, Pat, Peter K., Rad

Porcelain War: Barry, Brian, Jennie, Joe, Johanna, Peter H., Rachel

Soundtrack to a Coup d’État: Jim, Karen, Kim, Nathalie

Sugarcane: Gilbert

Best International Feature

The nominees: I’m Still Here (Brazil), The Girl with the Needle (Denmark), Emilia Pérez (France), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany), Flow (Latvia)

Will win

Emilia Pérez: Gilbert, Jim, Joe, Karen, Pat

I’m Still Here: Andrew, Barry, Brian, Courtney, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Johanna, Nathalie, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel, Rad

Best Animated Feature

The nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Will win

Flow: Andrew, Barry, Courtney, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Jim, Johanna, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Peter K., Rachel, Rad

The Wild Robot: Brian, Jennie, Joe, Karen, Pat, Peter H.

Best Cinematography

The nominees: The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

Will win

The Brutalist: Andrew, Barry, Jason, Jennie, Jim, Joe, Johanna, Karen, Kim, Pat, Peter H., Peter K.,

Dune: Part Two: Brian, Courtney, Gilbert

Maria: Jackson, Nathalie

Nosferatu: Rad, Rachel

Best Production Design

The nominees: The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

Will win

The Brutalist: Barry, Nathalie

Conclave: Gilbert, Karen, Kim

Dune: Part Two: Courtney, Jackson

Nosferatu: Jim, Johanna, Rad

Wicked: Andrew, Brian, Jason, Jennie, Joe, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel

Best Costume Design

The nominees: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Will win

A Complete Unknown: Johanna

Conclave: Gilbert

Nosferatu: Courtney, Jim, Karen, Rad

Wicked: Andrew, Barry, Brian, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Joe, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel

Best Music (Original Score)

The nominees: The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

Will win

The Brutalist: Andrew, Brian, Jason, Joe, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel, Rad

Conclave: Barry, Courtney, Jackson, Nathalie, Pat

Emilia Pérez: Jim, Johanna

Wicked: Gilbert, Jennie, Karen, Kim

Best Music (Original Song)

The nominees: “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

Will win

“El Mal”: Andrew, Brian, Courtney, Jackson, Jason, Karen, Pat, Peter K., Rachel, Rad

“Like a Bird”: Gilbert, Peter H.

“Mi Camino”: Jim, Joe, Johanna, Kim

“Never Too Late”:

“The Journey”: Barry, Jennie, Nathalie

Best Sound

The nominees: A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

Will win

A Complete Unknown: Jackson, Jason, Karen, Nathalie, Peter K., Rad

Dune: Part Two: Andrew, Barry, Brian, Courtney, Gilbert, Jennie, Jim, Joe, Johanna, Pat, Peter H., Rachel

Wicked: Kim

Best Film Editing

The nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

Will win

Anora: Rad

The Brutalist: Barry, Gilbert, Jackson, Jennie, Johanna, Kim

Conclave: Andrew, Brian, Courtney, Jason, Jim, Joe, Karen, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel

Best Visual Effects

The nominees: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

Will win

Better Man: Courtney,Jim, Rad

Dune: Part Two: Andrew, Barry, Brian, Gilbert, Jackson, Jason, Jennie, Joe, Johanna, Karen, Kim, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rachel

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

The nominees: A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Will win

A Different Man: Johanna

Emilia Pérez: Jim

Nosferatu: Jackson, Karen

The Substance: Andrew, Courtney, Jason, Nathalie, Pat, Peter H., Peter K., Rad

Wicked: Barry, Brian, Gilbert, Jennie, Joe, Kim, Rachel

Best Documentary Short Film

The nominees: Death By Numbers; Instruments of a Beating Heart; I Am Ready, Warden; Incident; The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Will win

Death By Numbers: Karen, Peter H.,

I Am Ready, Warden: Andrew, Courtney, Brian, Jennie, Joe, Pat, Rachel

Instruments of a Beating Heart: Jim

Incident: Jackson, Peter K., Rad

The Only Girl in the Orchestra: Barry, Gilbert, Jason, Johanna, Kim, Nathalie

Best Animated Short Film

The nominees: Beautiful Men, In the Shadow of Cyprus, Magic Candies, Wander to Wonder, Yuck!

Will win

Beautiful Men: Gilbert

In the Shadow of Cyprus: Andrew, Barry, Karen, Pat, Rad

Magic Candies: Brian, Jason, Jennie, Joe, Rachel

Wander to Wonder: Courtney, Johanna

Yuck!: Jackson, Jim, Nathalie, Peter H., Peter K.

Best Live Action Film

The nominees: Anuja, A Lien, I’m Not a Robot, The Last Ranger, The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Will win

Anuja: Brian, Courntey, Jennie, Joe, Kim, Rachel

A Lien: Jackson, Jason, Pat, Peter K.

I’m Not a Robot: Jim, Johanna, Karen

The Last Ranger: Nathalie, Peter H.

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent: Andrew, Barry, Gilbert, Rad

Who Are You Rooting for Most on Oscar Night?

Andrew: I just hope the nominees all have fun!

Brian: Timothée Chalamet – Best Actor

Courtney: Nickel Boys for Best Picture (hey, I can dream)

Gilbert: Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Jackson: Memoir of a Snail

Jason: Conclave

Jennie: Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Jim: Anora

Joe: Demi Moore – The Substance

Kim: Anora!

Pat: Emilia Pérez, because why bail at this point? Also, Flow, No Other Land, and Ed Lachman (Maria)

Peter H.: Timothée Chalamet – Best Actor

Peter K.: Gints Zilbalodis and Demi Moore, in pretty much equal measure. I also want them to become best friends and Gints can make his next movie about [Moore’s dog] Pilaf.

Rachel: Ralph Fiennes – still a crime he didn’t win for Schindler’s List

Rad: Nickel Boys

Links to Oscar Coverage!

At CBC, Jackson Weaver breaks down who will and should win.

At the Toronto Star, Peter Howell wonders what happened to all the Canuck contenders.

At CBC, Radheyan Simonpillai surveys the field.

At That Shelf, Courtney Small, Rachel West, and Pat Mullen offer their picks and predictions.

At Classical FM, Marc Glassman continues his picks.

At POV Magazine, Marc Glassman and Pat Mullen do a documentary deep dive.