The TFCA Predicts the Oscars – 2021 Edition!

April 23, 2021

Hollywood’s biggest night is finally here! It’s been a long, but fortunately not-so-cruel award season. Without the usual mudslinging and studio muscle, the Oscar race has ushered some strong contenders into the spotlight. Nomadland is the odds-on favourite to win the top prize at Sunday’s Academy Awards. If it performs as expected, it will join fellow TIFF People’s Choice Award winners Chariots of Fire, American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Year’s a Slave, and (sigh) Green Book as Best Picture winners that began their runs at TIFF.

The biggest prize of the night might actually be the most predictable one. We polled TFCA members for their predictions in all 23 categories at this year’s Academy Awards. Results were across the board in many categories, so chill the bubbly and fasten your seatbelts for a hopefully-not-so-bumpy night!

Here are the TFCA members’ collective Oscar predictions. Download your printable ballot and play along.

Best Picture

Will win: Nomadland (90.9%)

Watch out for: Judas and the Black Messiah (9.1%)

Also nominated: The Father, Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Director

Will win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland (90.9%)

Watch out for: David Fincher, Mank (9.1%)

Also nominated: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

Best Actress

Will win: Frances McDormand, Nomadland (72.7%)

Watch out for: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (18.2%)

Dark horse: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (9.1%)

Also nominated: Andray Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)

Best Actor

Will win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (63.6%)

Watch out for: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal and Anthony Hopkins, The Father (18.2% each)

Also nominated: Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari (45.5%)

Watch out for: Maria Bakalova (27.3%)

Dark horses: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy; Olivia Colman, The Father; Amanda Seyfried, Mank (9.1% each)

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (81.8%)

Watch out for: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (9.1% each)

Also nominated: Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami) and Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Best Documentary Feature

We’re split!

Will win: My Octopus Teacher and Time (36.4% each)

Watch out for: Collective (18.2%)

Dark horse: The Mole Agent (9.1%)

Also nominated: Crip Camp

Best International Feature

Will win: Another Round – Denmark (81.8%)

Watch out for: Collective (Romania) and The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia) (9.1% each)

Also nominated: Better Days (Hong Kong), Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Best Animated Feature

Will win: Soul (90.9%)

Watch out for: Wolfwalkers (9.1%)

Also nominated: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: The Father (63.6%)

Watch out for: Nomadland and One Night in Miami (18.2% each)

Also nominated: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The White Tiger

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7 (45.5%)

Watch out for: Promising Young Woman (36.4%)

Dark horse: Minari (18.2%)

Also nominated: Judas and the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal

Best Cinematography

Will win: Nomadland (54.5%)

Watch out for: Mank (45.5%)

Also nominated: Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Film Editing

Will win: Sound of Metal (36.4%)

Watch out for: Nomadland (27.3%)

Dark horses: The Father and The Trial of the Chicago 7 (18.2%)

Also nominated: Promising Young Woman

Best Costume Design

Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (54.5%)

Watch out for: Emma and Mank (18.2%)

Dark horse: Mulan (9.1%)

Also nominated: Pinocchio

Best Production Design

Will win: Mank (72.7%)

Watch out for: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (18.2%)

Dark horse: The Father (9.1%)

Also nominated: News of the World, Tenet

Best Music – Original Score

Will win: Soul (81.8%)

Watch out for: Mank (18.2%)

Also nominated: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, News of the World

Best Music – Original Song

One of the night’s tougher calls!

Will win: “Speak Now” – One Night in Miami (36.4%)

Watch out for: “Fight for You” – Judas and the Black Messiah (27.3%)

Dark horse: “Hear My Voice” – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (18.2%)

Long shots: “Io sì (Seen)” – The Life Ahead and “Husavik” – Eurovision (9.1% each)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win: Mank (45.5%)

Watch out for: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (36.4%)

Dark horses: Emma and Hillbilly Elegy (9.1%)

Also nominated: Pinocchio

Best Visual Effects

Will win: Tenet (90.9%)

Watch out for: Mulan (9.1%)

Also nominated: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, The One and Only Ivan

Best Sound

Will win: Sound of Metal (90.9%)

Watch out for: Mank (9.1%)

Also nominated: Greyhound, News of the World, Soul

Best Documentary, Short Subject

Will win: A Concerto Is a Conversation (63.6%)

Watch out for: Hunger Ward (27.3%)

Dark horse: Do Not Split (9.1%)

Also nominated: Colette, A Love Song for Latasha

Best Animated Short

Will win: If Anything Happens, I Love You (45.5%)

Watch out for: Opera (36.4%)

Dark horses: Burrow and Genius Loci (9.1%)

Also nominated: Yes-People

Best Live Action Short

Will win: Two Distant Strangers (45.5%)

Watch out for: Feeling Through (27.3%)

Dark horse: The Present (18.2%)

Long shot: The Letter Room (9.1%)

Also nominated: White Eye

Need more tips?

For individual picks and predictions, check out thoughts on the Oscars from Peter Howell at the Toronto Star, Barry Hertz and Johanna Schneller debate this year’s race at The Globe and Mail, Pat Mullen at POV Magazine, Marc Glassman at Classical FM, and some highlights from our recent virtual gala that included many nominees!